Monday, March 3, 2008

Bill James knows all

Bill "the statistical oracle" James has weighed in on what he thinks the 2008 Brewers are capable of, and there aren't that many surprises here. Essentially, he thinks there is a lot of young talent that is going to hit home runs...and whatever happens from that happens. I haven't read the entire preview, and the JS only covered the offensive side of the preview basically, so there is no prediction about starting pitching.

Here are 3 stats from 2007 that James threw out there, which I found interesting:

- The Brewers were 7-18 when Chris Capuano started, scoring 3.68 runs a game for him. The team was 16-7 when Claudio Vargas started, scoring 5.78 runs for him. Capuano and Vargas have virtually identical ERAs, 5.10 and 5.09, respectively.
My React: I think we all knew Vargas got help last year, but looking at it this way is just ridiculous. Somehow Cappy was able to maintain the same ERA as Vargas while getting 2 fewer runs a game? Wow. I'm still sticking by Vargas being traded at the end of Spring (barring injuries) Training.

-Former Brewers catcher
Johnny Estrada swung at 63% of the pitches he saw, highest in baseball among players who batted 400 times.
My React: We didn't need this...everyone knows Estrada is a selfish rat.

James says his intuition is that Weeks may have a good season, batting .285 with a .380 on-base percentage, show some power and steal 40 bases. "That's a player," James writes.
My React: Pencil it in! I'm officially on the Weeks bandwagon. It seems like you can't read anything that doesn't say this guy is going to have a monster year.

1 comment:

matt said...

Ned Yost (aka Yostradamus) already said a breakout season by Weeks was "pretty much a done deal" so I don't think that James is really going out on a limb there.