A Jose Capellan Sighting

Some random Brewers-related items that I've been tardy in posting with all the March Madness whatnot going on around here:

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If anyone thought that Houston might be a dark horse in the NL Central this year, I give you several pieces of evidence to the contrary. First, Jose Capellan is currently battling Russ Ortiz for the 5th spot in the Astros' rotation. Yes, Jose freaking Capellan. Second, the Astros have a record of 2-16-3 in Spring Training this year after notching a W against the Reds yesterday. I know Spring Training means nothing, and that Roy Oswalt is pitching for Team USA, but that is still horrible and they should feel great shame. Finally, Mike Hampton is their projected 4th starter. Let's just say that their starting pitching is a mess.

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If anyone thought that Milwaukee might be a dark horse in the NL Central this year, I give you the Brewers bullpen. Jesus, what a grease fire. Where to begin? Trevor Hoffman caught the intercostal bug and might not be ready for the season. Plan B? Seth McClung? (if he doesn't have to be a starter, of course). One would have thought that Carlos Villanueva might be in line to close if Hoffman can't go, but he has been brutal this spring, to the point where Manager Ken called him out (what a concept - holding players accountable!) David Riske has been terrible coming back from his elbow problems, and Jorge Julio is erratic (which has been his M.O. during his career). Basically, Mitch Stetter and Mark DeFelice are the two guys who are pitching well out of the bullpen right now. That Morlan guy was so bad that the Brewers cut him and sent him back to Tampa. I recognize that it is still Spring Training, but this bullpen is a major question mark in my mind coming down to Opening Day.

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Casey McGehee is making this club out of Spring Training. He's now hitting .410 with 4 home runs. Case closed. Welcome to Milwaukee.

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Ken Macha is thinking of batting Jason Kendall at the leadoff spot sometimes. I'm not sure what I think about this, but at first blush I don't think that it is a horrible idea. Yes, he is slow. But he had good at bats, doesn't strike out a ton and will take a walk. Rickie Weeks is playing better lately in Spring Training, raising his average over .300 which he has not done since, what, AA? The only problem is, if Weeks doesn't hit first, where does he hit? I don't think he would be great in the 8th spot, but he's probably a better option than Hall batting 8th, since Weeks has some manner of strike zone discipline.

Kendall
Hardy
Braun
Prince
Hart
Cameron
Hall
Weeks

(?) I bet Weeks ends up leading off the majority of the time.

Those Pesky Astros

Good times down in Houston! The Astros have won 8 straight. Are they really 8 games over .500 and only 6.5 back in the wild card? Good for them.

Crawfish boxes are excited...even though they wrote the Astros off for dead after they were in Milwaukee. Gotta love this little nugget written:

While the Brewers seem to be imploding slightly...

Ahh yes...the Brewers are imploding. They're done. 3 game losing streaks are killers in a MLB regular season.

Call me cocky, but I like our chances in this little 4 game set we have with the Padres. It will be one of those "going about your business" series where we take 3 of 4. And all will be right in the world of the wild card again.

Just for kicks...here's an updated Postseason Odds Report:
Brewers - 92.24%
Astors - .83%

So...the cork is still on the champaign bottle...but I'm getting ready to pop that sucker.

Astros 2008 R.I.P.?

If you believe this game thread from over at the Crawford Boxes, the Brewers just ended Houston's season with today's victory over the Astros.

Not that I take any particular pleasure in that - I don't hold any ill will towards the Astros. Except when they're trying to make the playoffs instead of the Brewers. Personally I thought their season was over quite a while ago, especially when Lee got hurt, though they have been rather hot lately.

I say, buck up Houston. You have 6 games left with the Cubs and 3 left with St. Louis - now go get some wins.

Astros in Town

After a just your basic .500 west coast road trip, the Brewers are back in town tonight for a week against the surging Astros and lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The Astros are up first.

The bad for the Crew? The Astros are on fire. They have basically been around 7 or 8 games under .500 all year and have picked up the pace the last month. They are now 2 games over and sit 7.5 behind the Crew in the Wild Card. Good for them.

The good for the Crew? We're trotting out CC, Sheets, & Parra for the 3 game set. You gotta like that right? You gotta feel good about your chances in a series with those 3 guys right?

But if you're Cecil Cooper...what do you do??? You predict a sweep.

In response to a reporter saying that the Astros could sweep the Brewers, Cooper said, "I'm predicting that, I'm going out on a limb. You heard it here first."

Interesting take Cecil...I thought I was the only guy that can make asinine predictions about sweeping teams.

Well Cecil...you twisted my arm. I'm also going to go out on a limb. I'm going to predict that the Brewers DO NOT get swept by your overachieving team, in a series where we miss your ace, you don't have Carlos Lee, and we have our top 3 pitchers going.

Yeah...I'll throw the Woz Guarantee up for that.

Astronauts Next

The Brewers really need to win this series.

It's important to continue climbing the ladder back into the NL Central race... and the Astros are the next team in line. Some runs would help.

Weekend Thoughts...

After the news on Yo...I'd say that series couldn't have went any worse. Definitely the "low" part of the young season thus far. Good thing there is an off day today.

A few thoughts:
-The fifth inning: All of a sudden we have a rotation full of Dave Bushes? What's going on there? Carlos & Manny were basically cruising until they got rocked in the 5th. I especially don't know what happened to Carlos. He must have hit a wall because all he could throw were 86 MPH cock-shots all of a sudden. It makes you appreciate a guy like Ben Sheets. Sheets hasn't had his "good" stuff since missing his 1 start but still managed to work through trouble and go 6 and a third.
-Bases Loaded: How many times did we leave the bases loaded in the series? 4? 6? I think Kendall came up twice on Friday with em juiced and couldn't find a hole. How about a little luck??
-Gagne. I don't know how I feel about him. He got unlucky with that bad call and he was getting squeezed at the plate. Where did those first two changeups miss against Borne? Low? Come on. But he doesn't get a free pass. He has either been very effective or he's blown up. I don't know how much more patience we can have with him though...

And now the bad news for the Brewers

After a month's worth of games it's time to do our first analysis on expected wins/losses. I'm going to be using the real basic formula here. Is it perfect? No. Is it a useful tool which can shed some light? Definitely. All numbers are pulled from this page in case people are wondering. Sadly, the numbers currently don't look good for the crew.

NL Central

St. Louis
Actual Winning percentage - .621, Actual Wins - 18
Expected Winning percentage - .627, Expected Wins - 18
MY REACT: The numbers here are spot on...and that doesn't bode well for the Crew. St. Louis wasn't expected to contend this year (depending on who you talked to) and they are playing just SOLID baseball right now. Pitching has been excellent.

Chicago
Actual Winning percentage - .607, Actual Wins - 17
Expected Winning percentage - .648, Expected Wins - 18
MY REACT: Based purely on the numbers so far...it appears it is the Cubs division to lose. If they keep up the same scoring pace (best offense in baseball) and more games pile up, the actual wins are eventually going to catch up with the expected wins. Break out that expected winning percentage over a 162 game season...wow. It's not going to stay that high...but it just goes to show the ceiling that the Cubs have. But don't forget...see my post from yesterday. They still have no heart.

The Crew
Actual Winning percentage - .571, Actual Wins - 16
Expected Winning percentage - .496, Expected Wins - 13 or 14
MY REACT: Ouch. The Brewers have been OUTSCORED this year, and are currently "playing over their heads" (a little Ned Yostism for you). While I'm not complaining about the team's ability to grind out these games (and win in extra innings), if the offense doesn't pick it up like it's supposed to our record will begin to even out. Right now the Brewers are a .500 ballclub that is running well in the close games. It's tough to maintain that over a 162 game season (unless you are the Diamondbacks last year). Another tidbit...look at Houston's numbers...the are essentially the same as the Brewer's but they are 3.5 games back. Warrants mentioning.

I'll do a similar analysis each month this season. Like I said already...the analysis isn't perfect, but you can definitely draw conclusions from it. It appears St. Louis is for real, Chicago is the front-runner, and Milwaukee needs to step it up a little to maintain their current pace. You can't argue with that.

NL Central Preview: Houston Astros

My NL Central preview is going to be a little bit different from your typical preview. Let's be honest - nobody wants to hear what I think about the division.

Instead, I've scoured the interweb, and found a couple of fan comments about their particular team that I think are fairly representative of what each team's fans think of their prospects this season. These were gathered mostly from the comment section that most websites now include with their stories (ESPN.com, Fox Sports, etc.)

Please remember that any spelling errors or other ridiculous statemens are not mine - they come straight from fan comments.

First up is the Houston Astros...without further adieu:

oldoug

The Stros hit the offseason needing to add starting pitching. Instead, they sacrificed defense and gutted a week farm system to add offense. Their ruling troika of McLane, Smith, and Wade have set the team back many years, and they will join the once proud Cardinals in fighting off the Pirates for fourth. The only hope of improving is for McLane to ignore Selig's slotting money in the draft, trust their scouts, and sign the best available players for the future. Definitely need Pence, Bourn, and Towles to come through, though the latter two are definitely lacking in experience. Will still be cheering them, but don't have high expectations.

p_rez

I know I was one of the first to start worring about all the players (prospects/starters) GM Ed Wade was sending away. It was an all too familiar site for me as Astro's fan. There was a time that I started to accept the fact that we had to just start over and rebuild from the ground up. I figured we would have to wait years and years for another contending team. To my surprise Ed Wade started to add peices to this broken puzzle. Unfortunatley, in my opionion, it still isn't enough. We still need a quality number 2 pitcher to help out the Wizard. One Ace and a mediocre pitching staff is not going to cut it. The Astro's are going to have to rely on there offense to out score their opponents. There is no other way I see it as of now..........

In summary, no farm system and no pitching means it's going to be a long season for Astros fans.

2008 NL Central Preview - Brad

Only 122 hours until first pitch! Here’s my annual inaccurate predictions of the NL Central. Matt will also be doing one and Woz will have an extensive breakdown of your Milwaukee Brewers.

Cubs - Well, according to the experts, the Cubs are the hands-down favorites to win the division. Looking at the lineup, rotation, and bullpen...it's hard to argue. Adding the import makes them a more balanced lineup with another LH bat that can get on base. Kerry Wood is supposedly throwing lights out and will be the closer. Even if he gets hurt (shocking, I know) Marmol is a lights out closer in waiting. The rest of the bullpen is solid....and the rotation is the best in the division. Hate to admit it, but they are the class of the NL Central. Record: 89-73

Reds - I think the Reds will make some noise this year….I swear I picked them second before I saw Verducci at SI do the same thing. You know they'll score some runs. I've been to that phone booth twice and the ball jumps out of there like it was shot out of a cannon. n. They splurged on CoCo, but he should be good for at least 2 of those 4 years. The Reds blew a whopping 28 saves last year, so just how much did they need him? Signing Cordero moves Stormy Weathers to the 8th inning role, which he is more suited for. All they need is Chuck Crim and Doug Jones to make an all ex-Brewer bully. Arroyo and Harang-atang makes for a decent front end and if they get anything from uber-prospect Homer Bailey (should be a Brewer, but we drafted Smokey Jeffress), look out. They have a nice mix of veterans (Dunn, Cordero, Harang, Griffey, Stormy), proven youngsters on the rise (Phillips, Encarnacion), and MLB ready prospects (Bailey, Votto, Volzquez, Bruce, Cueto). Call me crazy, I like this team....which means they will win about 73 games. Record 85-77

Brewers - After pissing away the division in 2007, what can the Brewers do for an encore? Mash, that's what. Mash early and often, although the lineup is woefully right handed. Adding Cameron was a great defensive addition. Even so, the Brewers are still below average defensively at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, and LF. "SS?" you ask. I have no idea what range factor is, but JJ's was the worst in baseball last year. Many (including Baseball Prospectus and nerd Bill James) have him moving to 3B in the not too distant future. They key of the season might be Eric Gagne. Did we sign the Texas (very good) or Boston version (gas can) of Gagne. Last year you could pencil in 40+ saves from Cordero and forget about it. Not this year. If Gagne blows up, in comes Turnbow, or McClung...a situation Brewer fans would rather avoid seeing. Quite frankly, there's just too many guys in the bullpen I don’t trust: Gagne, Turnbow, Torres, McClung, Cappy, Mota, etc. And as deep as the rotation is, Gallerdo is already hurt (trust me, they'll take their sweet time bringing him back) and after Sheets goes on the DL, you're left with a bunch of 5 inning pitchers. Oh, and you still have Ned Yost handling this situation. Overall, I'm not so sure if this team is any better than last years version. I hope I'm wrong, REALLY wrong. Record: 84-78.

Cardinals - What the hell happened? Didn't they win the World Series like 18 months ago? Suppan, Edmonds, Rolen, Eckstien, Marquis, Weaver, Carpenter (hurt), and Hancock (dead) all MIA. Replaced with....Troy Glaus? That's not good enough. The Pujols elbow issue has to scare the hell out of the front office. That baby could blow at any second. With the Cards struggling to compete, it wouldn't surprise me if they shut him down well before September. Oh, and expect at least 3 more guys to miss time with DUIs. Record: 75-87

Astros - If baseball rosters went 4 deep, Houston would be pretty good. Oswalt, Berkman, Caballo, and Pence makes for a solid core. That said, the direction of this team (if they have one) baffles me. You figure they would go cheap/young/rebuild after the closing of the Biggio-Bagwell-Lidge-Clemens era. But the farm system sucks so bad they had to go the veteran route picking up Miggy Tejada, Kaz Matsui and Joe Valverde. Bad idea. This team isn't close this year, and wont be for a long time with a bone-dry farm system. The rotation blows after Oswalt. Record: 75-87.

Pirates - New owner, new GM, new Manger, same shitty Pirates. Take a look at that lineup? Holy Hell! Don't they draft in the top 5 every year? And all you can give me is Andy LaRoche and Xavier Nady batting 4-5? They do have some good, young arms but asking this team to win 75 games is like asking Woz to not drink at a Miller Park…ain’t gonna happen. Too bad because they have a sweet ballpark and a lot of history in that organization. Record: 68-94


All NL Central Team

C - Yaddy Molina (STL). Forget the numbers, this guy completely shuts down the opponents running game. He's like Henry Blanco, only with a useful bat (.275, 40 RBI).
Honorable Mention: Geovany Soto (CHI)

1B - Prince Fielder (MIL). Big Poppa has unseated Pujols at the ripe old age of 23. Prince is in a better lineup, should drive in more runs, and doesn't have 21 things wrong with his elbows. Plus, he's pissed. A pissed off Prince is good for the Brewers, bad for the NL Central.
Honorable Mention: Al Pujols (STL), Derek Lee (CHI)

2B - Brandon Phillips (CIN). The noted Brewer-killer is now an everyone-killer. He had a breakout year with pop (30 bombs), a solid average (.288), speed (32 steals), and very good defense.
Honorable Mention: Freddy Sanchez (PIT)

3B - Aramis Ramirez (CHI). A-Ram hit .310 and topped 100 RBIs for the 5th time in his career.
Honorable Mention: Edwin Encarnacion (CIN)

SS - Miggy Tejada. His best days are behind him, but he's the best of the bunch. Playing at Houston will only help his numbers.
Honorable Mention: JJ Hardy (MIL)

OF - Adam Dunn (CIN). Don't worry about the low batting average and big strikeout totals. His on base was .386 while mashing 40 bombs and 106 RBIs. I think he's in a contract year as well...always a production-booster.
OF - Carlos Lee (HOU). The Horse keeps mashing, in a park tailor made for his swing. .303, 32, 119 in his first season in Houston.
OF - Ryan Braun (MIL). Braun may have never played an inning of OF in his life, but his bat is that good. This guy is a beast with attitude. Is .324-34-97 in 113 games any good? Knock on wood: no sophomore slump.
Honorable Mention: Alph Soriano (CHI), Corey Hart (MIL), Jason Bay (PIT), Hunter Pence (HOU)

SP - Roy Oswalt (HOU)
SP - Carlos Zambrano (CHI)
SP - Aaron Harang (CIN)
SP - Ian Snell (PIT)
SP - Tom Gorzalany (PIT)
Honorable Mention: Ted Lilly (CHI), Rich Hill (CHI), Ben Sheets (MIL), Adam Wainright (STL), Yo Gallerdo (MIL)

CL - Jose Valverde (HOU).
Honorable Mention: CoCo Cordero (CIN), Matt Capps (PIT)

Well, there you go. Banking on any of this to happen will only cause heartache and stress.