Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Playoff Odds

The brilliant minds over at Baseball Prospectus keep an ongoing Postseason Odds link up on their website, so basically at any time you can check in and see what you're favorite team's odds are!

How do they compute it? Hell...I don't know. Try reading through all that stuff. I guess they run a million different simulations and then base their odds on that. A million simulations seems like an appropriate number.

Here are the current odds in the NL to reach postseason:
Mets - 68%
Phillies - 30%

Cubs - 99%
Brewers - 78%
Cardinals - 16%

DBacks - 57%
Dodgers - 43%

If you break the Brewers 78% down, they are 72% likely to win the wild card & 6% likely to win the division. So yet again, just another example of how impossible it is for the Brewers not to make the playoffs this year.

An ohhh...the Nationals...yeah their playoff chances are at 0%, along with a few other teams. Enjoy September guys!

We'll check back on this odds report a few more times the rest of the way.


Wrigleyville said...

That's a 1 in 5 chance they don't make it - hardly "impossible."

At the end of July last season, the odds that the Brewers were going to make the playoffs: 72 percent.

So ... somewhere between 72 and 78 percent you cross the "impossible" threshold.

Wrigleyville said...

2007 New York Mets odds of making playoffs, as of in early September: 99.2 percent.

D'Amico's one good year said...

Is that rain? But, I was going to have a parade!!! Just me and my little toys!

Seriously, though... Yeah, you're right, WV... BUT (and as a Cubs fan, this is a feeling you should be used to), when your team is regularly bad, there's a tendency to get very optimistic when they do well. But I'm not going to lie... years of conditioning have me bracing myself for a collapse.

Wrigleyville said...

as a cubs fan, i know there's no need to get ahead of yourself.

people ask why we aren't tracking the magic number at wv23. it's for a very simple reason: because something bad will happen if we start tracking the magic number in august.

there is no reason the brewers or even the cardinals can't catch the cubs at this point, so that 99 percent means nothing. just as it meant nothing for the mets last year.

D'Amico's one good year said...

Ah, good... So my uneasy isn't irrational then. I thought I was just a nervous man.

I agree wholeheartedly. The Brewer (or the Cubs or Cards) could do anything yet at this point of the season. Yes, it's already late August... But it's still only August! Think about what the Rockies did last year (everything except the pissing down there leg against the Red Sawx part).

birdhas said...

I love how WV posts a response to Zeus' post: "So ... somewhere between 72 and 78 percent you cross the "impossible" threshold." WV is a some master of logic and reason.

Later on he posts, "people ask why we aren't tracking the magic number at wv23. it's for a very simple reason: because something bad will happen if we start tracking the magic number in august."

Yes WV...if you start tracking the Cubs magic number, Carlos Zambrano and Derek Lee will be suddenly be stricken with polio. Or worse yet they will get a rare disease that turn them into billy goats they will have to live on a farm the rest of their lives.

Anonymous said...

don't worry, WV, something bad will happen whether you track magic numbers or not.

and i'll be on your blog the moment it happens and all winter long to remind you hayseeds about it :)

Wrigleyville said...

thank you for that captivating recap of my comments, birdhas.

and if you are somehow surprised that cubs fans are superstitious, well, you haven't been paying attention.

oh, and welcome to the world of potentially bad things happening late in the season.

D'Amico's one good year said...

WV- The only real change for us is that it's happening in so late in the season... It was usually , sometime mercifully over sooner.