The main point of the trip will be to own novices in poker, mixed in with a little degeneracy at the dice tables, where I've been known to yell so loud when the point hits that people think I've won a million bucks or something.
However, some MLB prop bets will have to be made. I'll go with my usual Brewer bet to get to the Series, along with somewhat of a "long shot" which I think I have a statistical edge.
Here are the current odds (as far as I know) for the NL Pennant.
I was a little disappointed to see the Brewers at 7/2. The CC trade obviously boosted them up. Can you imagine what it would have been after the Boston series when we were like 5 games under? It probably was like 16 - 20 to 1. That would have been the time to bet the farm.
But it's irrelevant. Place me down for $150 at 7/2.
The other bet? Hmmm...that's where it gets interesting. Let's bring the NL standings into play.
First of all, let me make a couple points:
-The Rockies are still at 25-1 but they are a 15 games below. Sheesh. Yeah I know they are only 7.5 games back and the West sucks. But 15 games? Come on. The Rockies suck (-77 run differential). I know the D-backs are overrated but you've got to pencil them in for at least 83 wins. The division is theirs.
-The Braves are at 40-1 and they are only 6 games below (6.5 back). I think they've been getting a little unlucky all year (they have consistently had a positive run differential and are currently sitting at +30...which is better then the Brewers...). I REALLY liked this bet before Smoltz went down. Now I'm not so sure. The Phillies would really have to tank. You've got to look at value though...and 40-1 isn't bad. You've got to think the Braves will play a little better on the road right???
-Marlins at 18-1. Nahhhh. Sucker bet. Yeah...4 games over (woo hoo). They'll end up under .500. Book it.
Since this is a long shot bet...I'm thinking $25 bucks on Atlanta. Do the math. It'd be a nice $1,000 ship.
Two other last pieces of general information:
-I am without a doubt the worst sports better on the planet. How bad am I? I'll tell you. I've lost probably over $300 wagering on professional tennis (I could have swore Jen Capriati was a lock at the 2003 US Open...only to see her lose to Henin-Hardenne when she was up a set and up 5-1 in the 2nd set...this was one of the lowest moments in my sports betting career). I once bet $100 on the Toronto Raptors (lost). I once bet $100 on England in a World Cup match (K bye!). I once bet $100 on the Dolphins to win this past year when they were 0-12 or something (wait, that was my buddy Diehl, the 2nd worst sports bettor on the planet).
-If I win $25,000 or more in Vegas, I will be quitting my job and writing this blog full time. Stamp that shit.