Friday, July 11, 2008


Heading to Vegas this weekend for the first time in about 7 months. It's been a tough stretch without seeing the lights, but the itch will be scratched big time over this 55 hour run.

The main point of the trip will be to own novices in poker, mixed in with a little degeneracy at the dice tables, where I've been known to yell so loud when the point hits that people think I've won a million bucks or something.

However, some MLB prop bets will have to be made. I'll go with my usual Brewer bet to get to the Series, along with somewhat of a "long shot" which I think I have a statistical edge.

Here are the current odds (as far as I know) for the NL Pennant.

I was a little disappointed to see the Brewers at 7/2. The CC trade obviously boosted them up. Can you imagine what it would have been after the Boston series when we were like 5 games under? It probably was like 16 - 20 to 1. That would have been the time to bet the farm.
But it's irrelevant. Place me down for $150 at 7/2.

The other bet? Hmmm...that's where it gets interesting. Let's bring the NL standings into play.

First of all, let me make a couple points:
-The Rockies are still at 25-1 but they are a 15 games below. Sheesh. Yeah I know they are only 7.5 games back and the West sucks. But 15 games? Come on. The Rockies suck (-77 run differential). I know the D-backs are overrated but you've got to pencil them in for at least 83 wins. The division is theirs.
-The Braves are at 40-1 and they are only 6 games below (6.5 back). I think they've been getting a little unlucky all year (they have consistently had a positive run differential and are currently sitting at +30...which is better then the Brewers...). I REALLY liked this bet before Smoltz went down. Now I'm not so sure. The Phillies would really have to tank. You've got to look at value though...and 40-1 isn't bad. You've got to think the Braves will play a little better on the road right???
-Marlins at 18-1. Nahhhh. Sucker bet. Yeah...4 games over (woo hoo). They'll end up under .500. Book it.

Since this is a long shot bet...I'm thinking $25 bucks on Atlanta. Do the math. It'd be a nice $1,000 ship.

Two other last pieces of general information:
-I am without a doubt the worst sports better on the planet. How bad am I? I'll tell you. I've lost probably over $300 wagering on professional tennis (I could have swore Jen Capriati was a lock at the 2003 US Open...only to see her lose to Henin-Hardenne when she was up a set and up 5-1 in the 2nd set...this was one of the lowest moments in my sports betting career). I once bet $100 on the Toronto Raptors (lost). I once bet $100 on England in a World Cup match (K bye!). I once bet $100 on the Dolphins to win this past year when they were 0-12 or something (wait, that was my buddy Diehl, the 2nd worst sports bettor on the planet).
-If I win $25,000 or more in Vegas, I will be quitting my job and writing this blog full time. Stamp that shit.


Diehl said...

I'm the worst, no one is worse then me, no one.

Diehl said...

We will also look for a good spot for the Bucks to play in 2011

brad said...

The low point wasnt losing that tennis match, its that you put money on it, and then watched it.

What's the Tigers odds? Last time I went on a gambling site at work I almost got fired.

Take the under on whatever the Georgia Bulldog's win total is. Their schedule is BRUTAL.

Matt said...

Take the under on Packers wins this season. Unless it's off the board right now given the Favre stuff flying around.

Anonymous said...

what you should do is put a hundo on the table at scores, maybe get a private room and enjoy a few songs. thats a more productive way to throw away $ in my book.