Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Milwaukee Brewers - 2007 VORP

Being just a sucker for baseball stats, I have come to learn more and more about the new sabremetric stats that are becoming popular these days in evaluating player performance. While I still think OBP is the most important stat (in relative terms:more guys on = more runs scored = more brewer wins = more Woz in good mood), VORP is one of the newer stats gaining more prevalence in certain baseball circles that I find useful when analyzing players.

Quick recap on VORP (Value Over Replacement Player): It essentially tries to answer how many runs a major league player generates over any random triple A scrub you can pick up for cheap. I like it because it takes all offensive categories into consideration, and you don't have to take it out of context for the most part. Someone could have a batting average of .375 but only have 35 at bats. The VORP # is based on runs...the higher the better...its that simple. So you can compare player's worth to a team each year just by looking at 1 figure.

VORP works for pitchers too, its just that for them its runs saved, not generated.

So lets take a look at the 2007 Milwaukee Brewers stats, players ranked by VORP: I've got just a couple comments to make for both hitters and pitchers.
-The Brewers core young guys are ranked 1-5. Then there is a significant drop-off to the rest of the team. Bill Hall's number (6.7) is yet another negative on his resume. Check it out...it's the same as Joe Dillon's! Joe Dillon had the same VORP as Bill Hall last year and Bill Hall had 6 times the plate appearances! I can't find Dillon's exact salary, but I know it was under 500K.

So put another way, Bill Hall (6 million) was paid at least 12 times more than Joe Dillon but they contributed the same amount over what a Triple A scrub could do. Hey...I like Bill Hall, he's a nice guy...but I'm just saying...take a few more walks son.

-Ben Sheets had the best VORP for a pitcher in 2007, even while missing 9 or 10 starts. Could you imagine what it'd be like for a whole season? Stay healthy Ben!

-Carlos had the 3rd best VORP for a pitcher in 2007, and there is talk about keeping him in the minor leagues recently (reporters are getting quotes from Yost confirming it). Why? Why? Why is this notion even entertained? It sickens me. Melvin and Yost better be toying with the media to pump up a trade or something. Does anybody not see Carlos on the opening day roster?

When valuing a player's season overall, VORP is a great place to start. In order, let's hope the 3 guys I mentioned improve, stay healthy, and actually play!


AP said...

Inspired by the FJM debate today?

matt said...

I think they should also generate a Value Over Replacement Fan stat.

Like me - on average, I generally:

buy a couple of beers at the stadium

maybe buy a sausage of some sort or cheese fries in the mini baseball helmet

cheer when appropriate

refuse to do the wave

stand up during the sausage race

boo the other team

don't boo the Brewers or Ned Yost

don't litter (except peanut shells)

am not so fat that I can't fit into my assigned seat

have not been so drunk so as to disturb fans around me*

*(except arguably one time last year at a boring Pirates game)

I think that my impact at the games are generally positive for the team and its fans, both in terms of cheering and financially. I'm not sure how to objectively score this, but I'll give myself a VORF of +22.

Goldy gets a +30 due to consistently sporting Brewers gear and never arriving late.

highplaya said...

Woz...As a Chucky Hacks writer your VORP is worse than Trent Durrington's.

brad said...

"How many runs a major league player generates over any random triple A scrub you can pick up for cheap."

- So, this doesnt account for who's on your bench? Like if Prince got hurt, we could put Hart at 1st. But in Prince's VORP, they compare him to a AAA guy rather than Hart....is this right? If so, this is a dumb stat. You're not gonna replace Prince with a random AAA guy, you would replace him with Corey, LaPorta, or Joe Dillon.

AP said...

Apparently Brad is not a VORP-y.

Goldy said...

I think my VORF will go through the roof this season when I wear my Mike Rivera BP jersey from the '06 retro sundays.

I think I get points deducted though for singing Easy Lover when Braun comes up to bat. Also for spilling the cheese from my pretzel on the people in front of me.

Anonymous said...

Woz, read that chapter and agree it is a valuable component