Thursday, November 8, 2007

2007-08 Free Agent Class

Jon Heyman of SI.com has an article about his guess at the projected value of the deals that potential free agents might expect this off-season.

7. Francisco Cordero. Big year in Brew City (44 saves, 86 K's in 63 1/3 innings). Nice acquisition for Doug Melvin, but it'll be tough to keep him.What's the deal? 4 years, $44 million.

If that's the case (and take this with a block of salt - this guy predicted that the Reds would win the NL Central in 2007) you can wave bye-bye to CoCo, in my opinion. No way they pay him $11 million per year.

Also, he has Hunter and Rowand getting deals for $15 million and $14 million per year, respectively. Pass.

Call me crazy, but I bet that any large moves that Doug Melvin makes this offseason will be trades or low-value free agent deals.

17 comments:

Brad said...

They NEED CoCo. This isn't the time to "discover" a closer like they did in the past (Kolb, DBow...). The division is theirs this year....

AP said...

But again, he's already making 6mil/per, so at 11M/per it's only a 5M increase. Koskie & Mench's lost salaries will cover that. Even if those salaries don't offset that, I'd assume Mark A. would be increasing payroll by several million this year, right? I'd be pretty upset if we didn't offer Cordero at least that. I'm sick of always getting these "scrap heap" relievers.

matt said...

Brad, that is a change of tune for you isn't it - weren't you always the big proponent of not paying closers and just grabbing one off the trash heap?

Personally, I don't think they'll pay Cordero that much. But we'll see...

Brad said...

Matt - True, but not when the division title is well within reach. When we won 72 games a year, then I agreed with the scrap heap theory. Plus, when the rest of the bullpen is scrap heap-quality, they need a good closer.

matt said...

I hope they re-sign him too. But I don't see it at 4 years $44 million.

In 3 years, they're going to want that $11 million to spend on one of their core young guys. Not an old closer.

Brad said...

Matt - So who's the closer next year? DBow? Linebrink? Someone we haven't herd of yet?

Garcia said...

I don't think they will pay more than what they paid for Suppan nor the same value as Sheets so my guess would be in the 9-9.5 million range. If they don't get him, I am not worried, I would actually rather have torri hunter roaming center and in the middle of the line-up. I think they have enough talent in AA and AAA to find a good if not very good relief squad. Some of those pitchers are damn good (and cheap)!

woziszeus said...

The only way this could work is if they backload the contract and dump him after two years.

Quite frankly, I am not a fan of signing him for more than 2 years. I wasn't thinking about 11 million a year either.

Looking at it from Melvin's point of view...you could have 1 guy at 11 million...or 3 (or 4) at 11 million. You've got to think that Melvin can find one of those guys to be close to Cordero in efficiency.

After reading this guy's predictions I am leaning towards signing Linebrink for 3.5 -4.5 M, letting Cordero go and filling the gaps...

Anonymous said...

I can't wait for Turn-blow's revenge!

Nubs said...

MONEY BALL Summary..Beane askes is the closer position overvalued? He believes so. Rather than overpay for a free agent who has established himself as a closer, he believes it’s better to groom a reliever within the system to fill the role of closer. It’s a genius idea: take a solid reliever with a manageable salary, give him the opportunity to close 30-40 games, and watch his value soar.

matt said...

Could get Gagne for significantly cheaper than that for a year, go the Linebrink route, or who knows? Parra?

Goldy said...

What about the disposed Fuentes in Colorado?

Benjamin said...

Player A: 32 yrs old .793 OPS $15 mil
Player B: 28 yrs old .787 OPS $6.8 mil

Which player would you rather have? Obviously player B which happens to be Bill Hall. Player A is none other than Torii Hunter. Yes I'm looking at you Garcia. :) Torii Hunter is one of the most overrated players in baseball.

Garcia said...

I hear your point loud and clear, I am only saying that I would rather spend my money on a position player in the outfield or at catcher rather than give Coco a huge contract. I think the Crew has the ability to promote within... guys like Mariano Salas, Luis Pena and Steve Bray (although he's getting lit up in Winter Ball) have the potential to be very cheap but effective pieces to our World Series 2008 puzzle!

Brad said...

Benjamin - I see your points, and even agree that Torii has been overratee, but why didn't you list steals, gold gloves, and defensive impact (if that's measurable) when comparing the two?
And that Billy's batting average is sinking like the Titanic the last 3 years.

Benjamin said...

I agree Garcia that the Coco money would be spent better elsewhere, a "professional" hitter for the outfield as Melvin says and some quality relievers.

I like Torii Hunter, great defender (better than Hall but Hall is still getting better), nice guy but if I could take Hall or Hunter I would take Hall. They have the same bat and Hall is 4 yrs younger and $7 mil cheaper. Remember all that running into walls takes a toll on a player.

Vergie Hall said...

Bill Hall wins Games!