Friday, June 22, 2007

More Schedule Analysis


Screw the NL Central, I'll take this sweet pennant.


Because it's Friday and I really don't feel like working, I've expanded on yesterday's schedule breakdown. Holy Hell!
  • The Brewers play 29 more series
  • Only 7 of those are against teams with a record of at least 3 games over .500, and two of those are against the garbage Rockies.
  • The win/loss record of all remaining teams the Brewers play.....922 - 1086!!!
  • That would be a .459 winning percentage, if you're scoring at home.
Final word: The opportunity to win a division title will NEVER be easier than this. Ever. Never, ever.

15 comments:

woziszeus said...

I couldn't adequately respond to AP's foolish comment a few posts below regarding Kevin Mench. I had to email KenTremendous from FireJoeMorgan.com to get an appropriate response. Here is what he wrote back (His response starts with the *****):

This is what I would say:

Speaking of free passes, 5 of the 6 teams with the fewest walks in the NL happen to be in the NL central. The Cards, Cubs, and Pirates all walk LESS than the Brewers and the Reds have only walked 3 more times. Apparently hackin' on 2-0 is just playin' NL Central style ball.

******This is one reason the NL Central is a terrible division.

Again, I'm not like Mench's mom or anything, but the only counter-point to the "Mench ain't walkin'" argument is that he has the highest batting average on the team w/ RISP. He goes out there to get RBI's, and so far this year he's done that at a higher clip than anyone else.

*****This year Mench is 9-31 with RISP. If he goes 0-his next-4 he'll be at .257. That's why small sample size arguments don't work -- they can fluctuate so wildly in such a short amount of time. With nobody on base Mench is 18-82, .220., with an identical OBP. This is hurting his team, and probably negating the positives of his (probably flukey) BARISP.

It's guys like Gross, Weeks, and Miller (who are all batting sub .200 w/ RISP) that should be taking more pitches in my opinion. I guess I'm fine with Mench swingin', and I'd hack too if I only played twice a month.

******Rickie Weeks, to cite one of those guys he mentioned, is a 24 year-old second baseman with a .799 OPS, including a .349 OBP. His BA-RISP is probably a fluke, too, given that if he goes 4 for his next 4 it would soar to .250.

****Mench never walks, ever, and it kills his team when he's in there. His EqA is .231. That's sad. Weeks's is .286. That's good, for a 2Bman. A random sampling of 20 or so AB in one particular situation (RISP) should never be used to sum up a player's contribution to the team.

*****And the reason the ability to walk is so valuable, is because it is slump-proof. Witness Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi -- when they've gone through periods where they couldn't hit slow-pitch beach balls, they were still getting on base, and the Yankees were still scoring runs hand over fist. You know how guys often get into scoring position? They walk!

****Hope this helps.

AP said...

I can't even begin to respond. I'm actually amazed at how dumb that was. Woz. I can just say that my small sample size was the only data I had available seeing as it was all of 2007; I can't predict the future. Abreu and Giambi were both mired in a horrible slump this year and the Yankees offense was too, so i don't exactly see how walks prevent slumps. I was saying the NL central was garbage by posting that piece about the lack of walks, so you agreed with me there. Sure if Mench goes 0 for his next 4 yadda yadda......but conversely he COULD go 900 for his next 901; again I'm going to consider actual information rather than hypothetical. And your hypothetical .257 AVG for Mench's hypothetical 0-4 performance would still have him light years ahead of Weeks even if RW had a hypothetical 4 fof 4 night. Yes, again my point is Mench isn't great. I'll repeat that MENCH ISN"T great. But he's better than Gross and he's produced runs THUS FAR better than Weeks has. Yes, in the future he could slump, but so far he's batting .271 in 143 AB's. 143 is not a small sample size and .271 is not "killing the team." Plus, statistically speaking you need 30 data entries for something to be be statistically relevant. I am pretty sure 9-31 qualifies as 30 entries. Your buddy Ken may actually be a larger idiot than you Woz.....

AGAIN: THE NL CENTRAL IS GARBAGE! That's exactly what I was saying because hacking 2-0 is what garbage players do, and walks don't prevent slumps because they aren't factored in as AB's so they don't affect batting average. If you go 0 for 90 with 60 walks your OBP may be fine, but you are most definitely slumping and most likely not producing runs. Woz, again, I hope I've cleared anything up that might be bothering you. Just keep writing about masturbation and I'll worry about the statistics angle...'kay?

AP said...

Here's a link to some statistics website with the formulas for >30 data size and <30. Again, statistics considers 30 or more samples as "more relevant" as less than 30.

http://www.isixsigma.com/library/content/c000709a.asp

AP said...

Here's an article from May 31st wondering why the Yankees offense is slumping. You'll notice he mentions Abreu & Giambi, the two "walk-a-holics."

http://blogs.msg.com/joel_sherman/2007/05/yankees_offense.html

ap said...

Here's a link to the Brewer/stat page. Mench's career OPS is .791, and that's higher than Weeks' career OPS. Yes I realize there are different criteria for 2B, but a career .791 OPS is respectable and isn't "killing this team". Especially since he doesn't play enough to "kill" anything.

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=mil

AP said...

I think Gross might lead the team in walks per AB, and he walks right up there w/ the best of them. How would you characterize Gabe offensively? Horrible would be my answer, regardless of "sample size."

Goldy said...

The first Chuckie Hacks sponsered sporting event is going to be a steel cage match pitting Woz vs. AP. We can have the one female Chuckie Hacks reader serve in the Ms. Elisabeth role.

matt said...

So what's the lesson of the day, kids?

Kevin Mench needs to take an f'ing pitch every once in a while.

AP said...

Agreed....if he gets one walk over the weekend, can we please get back to miniature horses and wondering why Gross isn't playing for Huntville?

AP said...

Apparently the "s" is silent in Huntsville.....

Anonymous said...

Ted Nugent is the mayor of Huntville.

AP said...

I want to try to clarify again. In no way, whatsoever, am I saying that Mench is better than Weeks or anything like that. I was observing that at this point one particular stat BA-RISP was higher, yes it could be a fluke and I hope to God it is, but after 48 AB's for Weeks, and AB's for Gross, & TG, AND Mench so far, Mench is #1. I realize it is a long season and numbers will swing, but we aren't exactly in April anymore either. How's this: Get rid of Mench...he sucks....and the walks he currently isn't getting in the AB's he currently isn't getting is apparently killing this team that is now 10 over .500. Jesus, fire that guy. There, now I hate Mench as much as everyone. Of course, he might play w/ a LHP in de la Rosa....but I'd rather see Gross & Jenks Vs. a lefty b/c I hate Mench so much. Happy?

AP said...

I read the hardball times as well Woz, and here's a link to Weeks' BA-RISP for his career. I know "Ken" says that his current BA-RISP may be a fluke, but if you consider his career it doesn't appear to get much better and from what I can tell he has a negative "Clutch" rating this year as well as last year. His rookie year was the best. It may not be entirely a "fluke."

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?playerId=1849

Goldy said...

I think this is the most action this blog has ever seen on a Friday. By the way, Willis just wants us all to get along.

Anonymous said...

Kevin Mench reminds me of an older version of John Jaha...I don't know why anyone would waste their breath arguing for either one. The bottom line is Weeks doesn't have a very good approach at the plate, but it is Hall of Fame like compared to Shrek. BTW if you walk 60 out of 90 times you are producing runs. But that is just my opinion and Jonathan Moxon is just one man!
-Krey